Monday, April 30, 2012

203 Pips - Apr 30th, 2012

Trade today initiated by Divergence from LST System result about 203 Pips from shorting GBPUSD and EURUSD.

Look at the indicator on the top right of the chart, it shows the pips gain for every unit trade as I scaled in every time trend resume from a retrace.

GBPUSD : 
Trade-1 TP-1 25 pips 
Closed manually Trade2 36 Pips, Trade3 26 Pips, Trade4 14 Pips, Trade5 4 Pips 
Total GBPUSD = 105 Pips

EURUSD : 
Closed manually Trade1 28 Pips, Trade2 29 Pips, Trade3 40 Pips, Trade4 1 Pips 
Total EURUSD = 98 Pips

The analysis would be on GBPUSD while EURUSD is tandem

As I have been analyze in my Post on Saturday 28th, I have had the situation sign by Vladimir's Forex LST System that lead to Short trade: 

The price have been diverging and reluctant to go higher since last week so I'd be looking to short after Asian session.


Additionally, EURUSD has had a failed test of the extreme high and later outside Asian box made 2 pins to higher trend line:


GBPUSD M1 shown a good Price Action reading, two shorts placed on GBPUSD (trade1 and trade2) after shooting star (rejected by R1 on MMM) while EURUSD due to its PA:


Entry was 4 pips of the high, I added extra 7 pips above the high for the SL so my risk was only 11 pips. With 11 pips risk x 2 units short = 22 pips risk, then I could trade bigger size to comply with 2 % risk capital each unit trade. The size is flexible depend on the range of Stop Loss. So by the time I enter 2 units I am risking 4 % of my account.

As my double entry MM I set the first TP (Trade-1) just above the next Supply area (which later missed 2 pips during first down move). It was 25 Pips that coincidentally more that 2 times of SL as directed by Vladimir's Strategy guide.


When I saw the momentum was strong, I scaled in 1 unit (trade 3) after a small retrace on M1 :

 Then adjust my stop above the last swing high. At this point I am at BREAK EVEN if something later go wrong. First TP around the low of asian box (Trade 1) just miss by 2 pips then price retrace;

Additional scaled in 1 unit when trend resume on M1 chart:


Then adjust the SL to lower than BE/small profit, later trade 1's TP taken out for 25 pips, 3 trades remain. Taking the first TP as soon as possible is a must. If something later go wrong, the worst I could get would be the first 25 pips TP + a small profit. So my risk never more than 4 % even many say that Scale in like this is dangerous.I am completely safe by the time my trade move to the first scale in. The key is reading Price Action and have a very precise entry/never chase the market:


Additional Scale in when price retrace then Resumed:

Again The last Scale In:


But later momentum slowing and failed to take out the last swing low. This sign that a corrective move was imminent, looking for exit at the next failed test to the low:

Later I realize that LST on M5 already made a divergence that should have convinced me to exit, M5 - LST System:


last picture taken:
GBPUSD:

EURUSD

Even later GBPUSD still made a last thrust 20 pips beyond the swing low where I exit, I still confinced that I did the right decision since GBPUSD hasn't yet made a failed test to its extreme high. This sharp correction  could still lead to choppy and failed retest to GBUSD extreme high. Otherwise this is just a corrective move that the trend could resume bullish: