Monday, April 30, 2012

203 Pips - Apr 30th, 2012

Trade today initiated by Divergence from LST System result about 203 Pips from shorting GBPUSD and EURUSD.

Look at the indicator on the top right of the chart, it shows the pips gain for every unit trade as I scaled in every time trend resume from a retrace.

GBPUSD : 
Trade-1 TP-1 25 pips 
Closed manually Trade2 36 Pips, Trade3 26 Pips, Trade4 14 Pips, Trade5 4 Pips 
Total GBPUSD = 105 Pips

EURUSD : 
Closed manually Trade1 28 Pips, Trade2 29 Pips, Trade3 40 Pips, Trade4 1 Pips 
Total EURUSD = 98 Pips

The analysis would be on GBPUSD while EURUSD is tandem

As I have been analyze in my Post on Saturday 28th, I have had the situation sign by Vladimir's Forex LST System that lead to Short trade: 

The price have been diverging and reluctant to go higher since last week so I'd be looking to short after Asian session.


Additionally, EURUSD has had a failed test of the extreme high and later outside Asian box made 2 pins to higher trend line:


GBPUSD M1 shown a good Price Action reading, two shorts placed on GBPUSD (trade1 and trade2) after shooting star (rejected by R1 on MMM) while EURUSD due to its PA:


Entry was 4 pips of the high, I added extra 7 pips above the high for the SL so my risk was only 11 pips. With 11 pips risk x 2 units short = 22 pips risk, then I could trade bigger size to comply with 2 % risk capital each unit trade. The size is flexible depend on the range of Stop Loss. So by the time I enter 2 units I am risking 4 % of my account.

As my double entry MM I set the first TP (Trade-1) just above the next Supply area (which later missed 2 pips during first down move). It was 25 Pips that coincidentally more that 2 times of SL as directed by Vladimir's Strategy guide.


When I saw the momentum was strong, I scaled in 1 unit (trade 3) after a small retrace on M1 :

 Then adjust my stop above the last swing high. At this point I am at BREAK EVEN if something later go wrong. First TP around the low of asian box (Trade 1) just miss by 2 pips then price retrace;

Additional scaled in 1 unit when trend resume on M1 chart:


Then adjust the SL to lower than BE/small profit, later trade 1's TP taken out for 25 pips, 3 trades remain. Taking the first TP as soon as possible is a must. If something later go wrong, the worst I could get would be the first 25 pips TP + a small profit. So my risk never more than 4 % even many say that Scale in like this is dangerous.I am completely safe by the time my trade move to the first scale in. The key is reading Price Action and have a very precise entry/never chase the market:


Additional Scale in when price retrace then Resumed:

Again The last Scale In:


But later momentum slowing and failed to take out the last swing low. This sign that a corrective move was imminent, looking for exit at the next failed test to the low:

Later I realize that LST on M5 already made a divergence that should have convinced me to exit, M5 - LST System:


last picture taken:
GBPUSD:

EURUSD

Even later GBPUSD still made a last thrust 20 pips beyond the swing low where I exit, I still confinced that I did the right decision since GBPUSD hasn't yet made a failed test to its extreme high. This sharp correction  could still lead to choppy and failed retest to GBUSD extreme high. Otherwise this is just a corrective move that the trend could resume bullish:


35 comments:

  1. I am confused by several terms you used. Where is the extreme high, and what do you mean by "failed test", is it up or down? I assume test means to touch certain price level, so when you say "failed test", does that mean it did not reach or touch certain price level? What is the difference between corrective move and retrace? I'm confused as to which direction is corrective move, and which direction is retrace. Is there a difference with pullback? Then which direction is which?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My trading skill are heavily shaved by STAR, Steve Mauro MMM, Lance Begs YTC-PAT, Sam Seiden Supply-Demand, Al Brooks Price Action and Vladimir's Forex LST System. Sometimes I consider reader familiar, Sorry for that.

      Extreme high (STAR Term) is the highest point which; On EURUSD on Friday while GBPUSD on Monday (the pin where my first 2 entry placed).

      Failed Test, You right. In Price Action analysis, the most obvious sign of reversal (not just retrace/pullback against the trend that later resume and exceed the trend extreme/extreme high/low)is (assume the trend is up then reverse down) :
      1. a slowing up momentum followed by
      2. a significant pullback down against the trend then
      3. retrace up to test the initial high/trend extreme but failed.
      Sign would be (respective number):
      1. Divergence. YTC-PAT: Deeper retrace/valley compare to previous, even a last thrust still significant reduce in price projection (range of the last higher high above its previous high), slove of the wave, rounding top etc.
      2. Surely break a short term Trend line. Some use Fibo level, while STAR using band of MA.
      3. There usually a strong rejection in this failed test sign by long wick, pin, shooting star, RR Track etc.

      Basically Retrace and corrective move talking the same thing just for different purpose. Just, retrace is small but corrective sometimes strong. Look EurUsd 26th-27th, tree strong wave down yet looks like a corrective over a big wave that lead to trend resume.

      If we talk by STAR system then retrace and pullback is different. but now lets just assume the same

      Delete
  2. You said, "When I saw the momentum was strong, I scaled in 1 unit (trade 4 - later trade 3) after a small retrace on M1 then adjust my stop above the last swing high. At this point I am at BREAK EVEN if something later go wrong."
    Why should it be Trade 4 and then become Trade 3? I don't understand where is the small retrace on M1, M1 means 1 min chart right? There should be many many retraces on M1. Then you adjust stop above the last swing high. But isn't that where your initial stop was? How can you be breakeven when the stop is still at the last swing high? The last swing high was never taken out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The 4th entry later became the 3rd entry since the 1st entry's TP taken out by 25 pips. This regarding to indicator on the top right that show pips gain for each trade.

      M1 = 1 Min Chart

      I just add some additional M1 chart.

      Look on LST, the entries are yellow while SL/TP red. M1 chart entry greed while SL/TP red.

      Look the position of red line at every step. All the SL for each entry are at the same point (red dashed line). If the price retrace and take out my last scale in it will hit the stop (all order closed). This result minus for the last scale in but the plus from several entry should cover the minus.

      Delete
  3. You said, "Additional scaled in 1 unit when trend resume and adjust the SL to lower than BE/small profit, later trade 1's TP taken out for 25 pips, 3 trades remain. Taking the first TP as soon as possible is a must. If something later go wrong, the worst I could get would be the first 25 pips TP + a small profit. So my risk never more than 4 % even many say that Scale in like this is dangerous.I am completely safe by the time my trade move to the first scale in."
    After you took first TP for 25 pips, you still have 3 trades left at different entry prices. How do you determine where is the breakeven price? Is there a way to read the average position price so that you can adjust your stop so quickly? Because all 3 trades left are taken at different prices 2 at profit and 1 at temporary loss.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Look at the 7th picture,

      The red lines/SL are below the trade 2 entry. The distance of Trade 1 to SL (+) and the distance of Trade 3 to SL (-) is approximately the same = BE. So if price retrace and take out the SL I got the first 25 pips and trade 2 about 2-3 pips.

      I manage SL/TP using "SL-TP_move by mouse"

      Delete
    2. If price take out the SL, you also will get -25 pips from Trade 3 right? It is not just Trade 1 first 25 pips and Trade 2 about 2-3 pips. So the worst you could get is breakeven (not first 25 pips + a small profit). What about Trade 3? It would need to be counted right?

      Delete
    3. "SL-TP_move by mouse" draw I line on the chart, red for TP/SL.

      My entry using several script (several with different lot size) and short cut already with pre-determined size, TP and SL. Later the "SL-TP_move by mouse" EA convert SL/TP into drag-able lines.

      Delete
    4. Ok,

      at that point we already have 4 trades (t1 closed 25 pips, still 3 open trades: t2,3,4);
      - T2 to t3 distance about 10 pips
      - T3 to t4 distance about 12 pips
      - SL placed 2 pips under t3,

      So if SL taken out:
      - t2 +12,
      - t3 +2,
      - t4 -10

      Profit: t1 +25, t2 +12, t3 +2, t4 -10 = 29 pips

      Delete
  4. So if you risk 22 pips and you said it was 4%, then now you got +203pips for the day. So did you win 40% of account size today?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I grew my account by about 1/3 of initial size.

    Please be aware that I do not count pips, percentage and lots using calculator or pips calculator prior to placing every trade as I have to react quickly to have the most precise entry I could.

    I place the trade using 2 scripts with predetermine Lots (size adjusted weekly around 1% and 2% of account size)

    If I got strong signal at M1 at the pin of Hammer/SStar I would use 2%-script but if I enter after candle close on M15 and no retest on M1 that forced me to enter beyond the signal bar (RR, Engulf etc) I would use 1% script.

    ReplyDelete
  6. very confusing post...

    ReplyDelete
  7. This is not for newbie, this is advance Price Action.

    If you don't know anything about Market Maker method, Al Brooks Price Action, Sam Seiden Supply And Demand, STAR trading system, Lance Begs YTC-Price Action Trading, Divergence trading, then this is not for you.

    This is a live account and live trade. If you put a little effort to see indicator on the right top screen you'll see pips gain for every unit trade placed at every step.

    Mastering those knowledge would give you daily max potential the market could give you.

    If you want additional example of the trading potential visit this link:
    http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5611816#post5611816
    http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5608108#post5608108

    And over 1.000 pips in 4 consecutive days (posted as Kapten):
    http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5548475#post5548475

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Kapten,

    Do you still using LST system? how is the progress?

    ReplyDelete
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