1.748 Pips Gain in a full week trading

I posted the trade on May 21st to complete the whole week trading post. Unluckily I have to spend my weekend to prepare 2 post including this one.

GBPUSD: 10, 44, 32, 30, 18, 9, -3, 27, 19, 17, 16 = 219 Pips

EURUSD: 19, 19, 0, 20, 16, 1, 1 = 73 Pips

Total: 292 Pips

The total Pips gain this full week trading:

May 21st    : 292 Pips

May 22nd  : 494 Pips
May 23rd   : 177 Pips
May 24th   : 314 Pips
May 25th   : 471 Pips
 

Total:  1.748 Pips

Finally, this post on the trade May 21st - 2012 would complete the trade for the whole week five days. You will see the wrong trade just like the other post. Learn the situation when I loss -3 Pips on GBPUSD and several trades of EURUSD that I scratched and scratched. If I were loosing focus and wasn't read bar by bar price I would have given back some of my profit to the market. This wrong trade would be a huge loss if dealt differently.

Some of the trade on EURUSD I would call a wrong trade since they were not move in my favor as expected. I know that a member forum say that I spent a lot of chart time. Indeed but look at the gain. I know that many traders still expecting a stress free trade, set and forget trade. Tell me if you were not stress when your stop keep being hit and you lose money. On the other hand I could have close the wrong trade in profit without waiting for the price hit my stop. You might think that those would be just a small profit, then read my post on trade may 24th, it was accumulated more than 300 Pips.

It was Lance Begs YTC-PAT taught me this. So I would directing traders to his site as he requested in return of his kindness to share his knowledge. (Although I know that Indo-investasi forum provide the link for free). It was YTC-PAT taught me to trade Dual monitor (Next week would be three screen, I have to order another screen and usb to vga adapter from the capital of Indonesia as I am currently at the very remote small island for a tour of duty), have higher and lower time frame chart, trade evaluation, rehearsal  etc. But Lance Begs apply it on the Support and Resistance line while for me at the Supply and Demand area. Again I should also thank Sam Seiden for this Great share of knowledge.

Still some criticize people that giving a good sharing: why would they sell system if they really making money with their system. I also aware that my way of providing real time chart and pips gain as indicator show at stage to stage is still not enough (instead of showing  complete chart and an empty claim that I made more than 800 Pips during this move).

I believe they are doing this not for money. Some people doing things not for money. Some enjoy teaching and sharing.

I will post the trade on GBPUSD first, yet both trades on GBPUSD and EURUSD were taken nearly the same time. You may notice that in this picture the Divergence line of LST System (still in the forum some asked what LST is, it is Forex LST System ofVladimir Ribakov) were missing as the picture taken today on May 27th.

This is the picture of complete move GBPUSD M15 on May 21st:

Pic-1:

H1 chart (not shown here) has shown indication that the correction on the large bearish move has ended. There were a fading of bull strength and the price has been rejected several times by a Ceiling (yellow circle). I was a little bit late to open the computer so I miss the trade at the end of Asian box.  I took the first trade at the last circle when price made two Pins to the high

Pic-2:

 

LST has showing Regular  Bearish Divergence. Look at the chart M-1 (top left), price rejected by blue line (MMM). I enter 2 initial units. First TP above the next Demand area. The first move down just miss my first TP then price show a rejection and failed test on M5 chart (lower left). Anticipating a deep pullback I adjust the SL of 1st TP 4 pips above the last swing high on M1 while  the second unit's SL under the entry lines. This stage I am already in the safe ride.

Pic-03:

It was this Pin that took out the SL of the first initial entry for about 10 Pips. Look at the M1 (top left chart). Two consecutive high close bullish bar failed to take out its initial High. David Weis would call this "Lack of Follow Through". I scaled in 2 units short.

Pic-4:

Some scaled in after each resume and finally the price halt by the DEMAND area (Please,, Please,, Learn Sam Seiden Method, it works all the time). Look at the Chart M1. Twice rejection, Lack of Followtrough and I was out. See the Pips gain indicator on the top right. The last scale in was a loosing trade -3.4 Pips loss. But am I lost any money ,,,???

Pic-5:

Later M15 chart, LST trigger a long trade. I was in doubt as the price has over shot the Demand area. Only after the third long pin that I enter 2 units Long.

Pic-6:

Price rallied up to take out my first TP.

Pic-7:

At this stage both LST histo and scto showing a potential Hidden Bearish divergence so I close the second unit and be ready to revers the trade.

Pic-8:13

More than enough of sign, I place 2 units short.

Pic-9:

Price fell of to take my 1st TP. It's on top of a DEMAND area and already late in the night so I close the second units then turned in.

Followings are EURUSD trade, hope that the picture are self explanatory:

Complete move of EURUSD on May 21st taken today on May 27th:

Pic-1:

This trade was closed a little bit earlier when I saw a potential bullish divergence and a quick rejection on M1 and M5 chart while price still made a last thrust for more than 10 Pips and reached its ADR as seen on the next pic.

Pic-2:

This is again a wrong decision. I doubt the Long singnal alerted by LST as the price halted right at the Trend Line. I forgot that Trend line, SR, Supdem could Hold or just Halt . That's how all aspect of analysis must come to mind all at once and when some analysis seems conflicted the wrong decision are made. As my rule, I should just move the Stop to BE. But as my premises were bearis, I doubt the setup provided by LST. I refined this mistake in the days of trade next. Keep refined and refined, all of them just "return to the rule", being discipline, a willingness to do what I know I should do. See the next pic that the price resumed up in to the Supply area.

Pic-3:

I placed 2 units short when the price reversed down. I scratch this trade as I closed the trade on GBPUSD, see the candle time and compare.

314 Pips on May 24th - My LOOSING TRADE

The main mistake I made was didn't notice the huge divergence as LST wouldn't draw Divergence lines if not at the extreme area. This made me made wrong orientation and made some wrong trade that I scratch and scratch.

But WRONG doesn't always mean Loss pips. Still the result:

EURUSD: 21, 3, 25, 25, 3, 2, 2, 40, 32, 7 = 160 Pips
GBPUSD: 25, 25, 11, 4, 2, 2, 14, 13, 12, 16, 28, 2 = 154 Pips

I've been asked if I were had a loosing trade since all of the post only showing winning trade. I've answered that it depend on our respective perspective on how we define a loosing and a winning trade.

Most of traders would think that a loosing trade is loosing certain sum of money as the result of Risk and Reward ratio. Simply said when order placed with 1:2 reward ratio then price move against the trade and take the stop then it would be a loosing trade.

If the above perception were to be the base of Loosing Trade, then personally I have a better word to divine my loosing trade since I didn't always have to lose money if the market against me. Therefore I'd like to call it Wrong trade as I have many times mentioned in my post that my loss is small profit or rarely at Break even.

Lance Begs in his YTC-PAT has taught that reading Price Action bar by bar then there would be a certain point where an experienced trader would realize that he/she is at the wrong trade. He/she would define a certain point to define his/her edge where the price reach certain level then he would not be interested in the trade anymore and scratch the trade. Lance Begs rarely wait for his stop to be hit.

In this post I would provide what I called a Loosing Trade, Ooops I mean a wrong trade both EURUSD and GBPUSD consecutively. The similar scenario of loosing trade are also part of the post "471 Pips on May 25th". Read it if you haven't.

The chart below is the complete move of EURUSD on May 24th. Market Maker made a so called Stop Hunt Low by Market Makers Method after Asian Session then made a big correction then made the real bear move during last session of US. I made some wrong short trade during the stop hunt and the correction but I didn't lose money:

Pic-1, EURUSD complete move on May 24th:

The blue dashed lines are my drawing.

The main mistake I made was didn't realize the big Divergence as the result of my stress around the critical area when IBF* frozen the price for 1-2 minutes then giving burst by burst candle movement.

Pic-2:

Please read the comments on "The CALM before the STORM" to be aware the situation that EURUSD are sitting on a strong DEMAND area. See the price bounced three times and made a nice trend line.

I took two units WRONG Long trade when the price rejected up at the end of Asian box at the Bar of LST's divergence signal. Indeed I placed the Stop under Asian Box but I pay a close attention on the minor Supply area above and place the first TP slightly under the SUPPLY area.

The first TP was taken out for 21 Pips. Later when SUPPLY area rejecting price strongly (see Chart M1 - Top left) I was alerted. As YTC-PAT taught, if the price take over the last swing low that lead to the last swing high I would not be interested to the trade anymore and have to re-asses the trend.

The first move down didn't pass the last swing low but later reluctant to go higher. Later when the price pass down the swing low left I closed the the remain second unit for 3 Pips. I don't need to wait my Stop to be hit.

"Giving the market a room to breathe" should be applied prudently. So I re-asses the trend and began to realize that even EURUSD are sitting on top of a strong DEMAND area the sloping of bar series between swing was actually lean to bearish (see the dashed blue lines). The price could still pass down the low of 23rd and penetrate deeper in to DEMAND area.

I saw a growing bearish  momentum on M1 (see the series of bar, red and green). I saw the potential Regular Bearish Divergence on both LST and FMM. LST drew the Divergence line after the red bar right of the shooting star closed. I confidently place 2 units short. My confident was growing as the price strongly broke the Trend Line.

Pic-3:

Later I add one more unit short but when price halt I exited all units considering that the DEMAND Area would hold.

Pic-4:

But later price still resumed (circle-1). I added 3 units short. This is a mistake. Some times I loosing focus and neglect my own rule. But again IBF* messed with me. I have always said in some of my post that prior to a sudden big move my broker would freeze the chart, re-quote as the internet connection were in trouble (I still could browse anyway). This one even worst, the circle-2 is not a price gap but chart frozen for 1 - 2 minutes and messed up the bar. The bar created from frozen to frozen. See the big green candle on M15 that later corrected to be a HAMMER (compare to the Pic-1).  Maybe my broker already recognize me, how would I read bar by bar in this burst by burst move. I face this situation twice this week.

On the circle-2 the price already take out the last swing high that lead to the extreme low. But I had no chance to get out. Price frozen to frozen. It was at circle-3 that I managed to get out.

Note: This occurrence is not by un-intentionally. Read post by "Darkstar" on FF about how is forex market structured and you will accept this situation (same like Stop Hunt, re-quote, frozen etc) is the natural of Third tier Forex market. Its the mutual best practice the Market Maker could provide us among their limitation. We are treated differently by broker. We should not condemn the broker but embrace this natural circumstances instead and learn to dance in the rain. I recommended that you read the posts that have been bundled in to PDF.

Pic-5:

Price continue bullish and made another move down but I didn't get any sign of strong move. It was a last thrust, strong pull back and failed test that I enter 2 shorts and one more scale in. Exit the trader when the price halted at the Trend Line and Take out 1st entry.

It was later that I realized that I didn't notice the huge divergence on both GBPUSD and EURUSD that made me making the mistake after mistake then went sleep before the real bearish move.

Followings are GBPUSD trades that have the same Mistake situation as EURUSD. Hopefully the picture would self explanatory.

Pic-1, The move of GBPUSD on May 24th:

The Wrong trades:

Pic-2:

Pic-3:

Pic-4:

Pic-5:

These I called Wrong trade but will be a Loosing trade if I give the market more room to breathe and take out my Stop Loss.

As I have always said that reading price action correctly, the market would never instantly against you. Always take the 1st TP, re adjust the Stop of the second units and never let the winner turn to looser.

471 Pips on May 25th - 2012

" a Wrong/loosing trade that cost me 1 pip loss"

Total Pips gain:

GBPUSD: 32, 30, 13, 10, 9, 24, 24, 17, 8 = 167 Pips 
EURUSD: 62, 67, 26, 44, 47, 36, 22 = 304 Pips

A friend of mine was asking if I had a loosing trade. I did have some loosing trade but due to my trading style my loosing doesn't always mean loosing the money by 1:2 Reward Ratio or something like that. I have explained the double/triple entry applying precision entry reading Price Action on M1 chart several time in my post.

In this post (EURUSD below) I would provide a loosing trade that cost me 1 Pips, yes you heard me " 1 Pip Loss in a loosing trade". In a post somewhere I have mentioned that when I was wrong then my lost is not negative but a small profit.

Trade took on every step was relatively at the same time on both GBPUSD and EURUSD but for the purpose of steps analysis I will put them in respective order. We'll began with GBPUSD first.

Before we step in to the trade step, it's good to read my comments on my Post " The CALM before the STORM " where I replied to a comment elaborating the situation of Price Action GBPUSD and EURUSD are sitting on.

In the Chart you would see that the LST template slightly changed. I added Stochastic and standard MACD 2 Lines in to Vladimir's Divergence Indicator of LST to apply Russ Horn's FMM Method to capture every possible Divergence and for Trigger confirmation. As usual, the yellow lines are entry while red are Stop and TP.

Pic-1 GBPUSD M15:

As I state in the comment, GBPUSD are sitting on a strong DEMAND AREA (Sam Seiden Supply and Demand strategy) created on Jan 12nd and being retouch on May 24th. The area rejected the price up for the third time during Asian session but seems like reluctant to go up yet I completely aware that GBPUSD is sitting on a strong DEMAND area so I'd rather expecting a bullish set-up which indeed began to emerged at the end of Asian session on both LST and FMM.

Pic-2 GBPUSD M1:

I set Asian box end at 6 am GMT. On Pic-1 Chart M15 you will only see two initial order at the tail of Pin right on the line of Asian Box end. On the M1 chart above you'll see the situation of entry in detail. The entries took after the price rejected by Asian Range lower boundary. Sometimes Asian Range is a strong Support/Resistance. See that the first entry was less than 5 Pips of the low.

I added 1 more Long when price broke upper Asian session up. This trade was exited when the move paused and the LST histogram showing a potential Hidden divergence.

Pic-3 GBPUSD M15:

The price indeed made a correction. I enter 2 shorts but IBF* frozen the chart so the second short was fulfilled far low. I found many times IBF* messing its chart during critical situation prevent me from reading bars and scaled in. Market Makers does exist. It's the nature of the Broker. We have to accept it. I exit this two short slightly above the DEMAND area.

Pic-4 GBPUSD M15:

Price then resumed up in to a strong solid SUPPLY area. I didn't get any sign of LST of FMM to go long so I didn't take any long. Later Price rejected strongly by SUPPLY area. Look at the Chart M1 on top left. I enter one short and another after a small retrace at the bar of LST signal.

Pic-5 GBPUSD M15:

I add another short after a small consolidation. I exit all orders right on top of SUPPLY area + Trend line. Price made a retrace then resumed down to reach LST second/far Take Profit area beyond the lower boundary of DEMAND area. I was reluctant to sell in to a strong DEMAND area and there were no early sign of Divergence either:

TRADE on EURUSD:

Pic-1 EURUSD M15:

My Mistake that cost me about 10 pips: I was initially placing 1 unit long after the green bullish bar before the first pin/first LST bullish divergence. Since I was in Asian range I only place 1 Long and I place the Stop tightly right under the low of the red bar before it. I should have place the Stop lower, lower than the long pin bar far left. This Stop was taken out by the Pin bar of first LST Bullish Divergence. I was at not in front of my laptop in my office so I missed this first chance. Luckily there was another test to the low that made the Second LST's Bullish Divergence. I place 2 Long

Pic-2 EURUSD M1:

M1 chart above provide a more clear situation where the entry took place.

Pic-3 EURUSD M15:

The trade took off and hit the SUPPLY area

Pic-41 Mistake, Loosing trade - 1 Pip Loss:

Look at the M1 chart (Top Left) Price was rejected by SUPPLY area and made a pullback. On the resume I place 1 long thinking that price usually move to reach its ADR above in to the SUPPLY area. But later price made a "Thrust - VSA theory" but a very shallow projection (YTC-PAT theory) then a quick rejection alert me that I could be wrong. So I adjusted my SL to the last swing low (less than 1 pips below the entry line). If the price take down this swing low then I have to re-asses the chart.

Pic-42:

Price indeed take out my STOP for 1 pip loss.

Pic-5:

No sign of divergence but I could short after a failed test of the high. Look at the left there were 5 swing low scale-in opportunity. This move alone could have had provided me 200 - 300 with scale-in. Unluckily I was a little late in may office with a single screen Laptop. I was loosing focus and time as I have to click back and forth to check different Time Frame as well as taking snapshot of chart to be posted.Pic-6:

This trade went down in to the DEMAND area. Again, I was reluctant to sell in to a DEMAND area, Novice does.

The CALM before the STORM

The charts below are Short trading on GBPUSD and EURUSD on May 23rd (177 Pips).
 
Trading intra-days in the Market Maker's Trend structure being alert of Red-flag news release has been making me aware of "The Calm before a Storm". Luckily the flow of the Storm is mostly to complete Market Maker's pattern (as Steve Mauro states in his MMM course).

See this Chart:

Signal to go Short was triggered by LST system. FMM has also showing an Exaggerated Stochastic Divergence.

I began to realize that the price would be usually calm in a tight range preceding the Red-flag news on GBP to be released 30' minutes after London open. Price was initially moving down gradually then made a spike down taking out the initial TP 50 Pips to fulfill the Market Maker's move (50, 33, 20, 11 = 114 Pips).

Seeing the correlation between the Red-flag news release and the price move would make traders capable of predicting when the Intra-day's price move would take place.

While the Red-flag news impact GBP, since EURUSD 80 % correlated to GBPUSD, then it's not uncommon that EURUSD move along the spike since bearish move of GBPUSD, Currency strengthperspective, could be result of:
1. GBP weakening or,
2. USD strengthening or,
3. Both

So 2 out of 3 occasion the EURUSD would move along. See this short on EURUSD nearly the same time triggered by LST (36, 19, 8 = 63 Pips).

494 Pips on May 22nd, Short GU and EU

Today I trade GBPUSD and EURUSD back and forth following the signal of LST and FMM.

The Result was:

EURUSD: 27, 12, 20, 51, 29, 19, 16, 7, 23, 26 = 230 Pips

GBPUSD: 38, 62, 34, 3, 13, 11, 3, 22, 21, 29, 28 = 264 Pips

Both EURUSD and GBPUSD were worked nearly the same time but the following picture arranged by pairs.

The template might slightly different as I applied FMM method as a confirmation in my trade (not a trigger) to maintain my confidence that I am in the right side. FMM signal and Setup of Trade are the same with LST but FMM triggers (MA, Trend Line and Stoc), although the safest way for traders, to me are a little bit late compare to Price Action.

Pre-Asian session Short EURUSD for 27 Pips and 12 Pips = 39 Pips

Just to remember: Yellow lines are entry line while red lines are Stop Loss and Take Profit and the real time Pips gain are on the Top Right Hand side of the chart as shown by MMM indicator.

Pic-1:

Initial trade I was only have the chance to Short EURUSD two units before Asian session after a short trade triggered by LST. GBPUSD has move a little bit far and I would never chase the price unless it comes to me. TP 1 was closed manually for 27 Pips when the price failed to take it out before a retrace during US session. The retrace also take out the Stop of the second unit for 12 Pips.

Later before London open, a short alert was triggered by LST. Align with MMM, there was three pins to the blue/M3 and Shark fin High. I place 2 short orders, 1st TP above the closest Demand area while the 2nd TP far away.

Pic-2:

TP-1 was taken out and retrace at Supply area. Later I scaled in - scaled out for several orders until ADR reached.

Pic-3:

The price went for 85 Pips Range, total pips gain: 38, 62, 34, 3 = 137 Pips

Pic-4:

Price retrace up, waiting for setup. Hidden Bearish divergence setup appear. I enter 2 unit short when price rejected on M1 Chart. Later 1 unit scale in. Three trades exit when price paused for 13, 11,3 = 27 Pips

Pic-5:

My analysis were correct. Later LST trigger Long trades so I place 2 units long. Thes order might exit too soon when I saw a potential hidden bearish divergence on LST histogram. I exited for 22 and 21 pips while price still climb and rejected by the previously broken Trend Line. Here TREND COLLAPSE play again.

Pic-6:

I placed 2 short after the pin in to the broken Trend Line. These trade went for 29 and 28 Pips. Again I exit when the price reluctant to go lower while Stoc on M15 showing a potential Hidden Bullish divergence. It's getting late here by the way.

Short on EURUSD was a continuation trend triggered by LST that I took Pre-Asian Session.

Pic-2&3-EU

The short took after 3 pins, scaled-in scaled-out and went for: 20, 51, 29, 19 = 119 Pips

Pic-4-EU:

EURUSD retraced up but Stoc made unusual high that gave me a potential Bear Hidden divergence so place 1 short and 1 after but this trade scratch for 24 and 7 pips when LST trigger a long trade.

Pic-5-EU: 

Long took for 2 units but later scratch for 16 and 7 pips when price paused at the Supply area and LST's Histogram made unusual higher high for the Hidden Bearish Divergence setup.

Pic-6-EU:

Later I placed 2 shorts when price began to fall then exit when the price reluctant to go lower while Stoc on M15 shoeing a potential Hidden Bullish Divergence. Trade exit for 26 and 23 Pips. The exit was a little bit earlier since the price still made about 15 Pips last thrust.